India Approves Limited Wheat Exports Amid Comfortable Stocks and Strong Rabi Outlook

14 February 2026, New Delhi: In a notable policy recalibration after nearly four years of restrictions, the Government of India has approved the export of 2.5 million metric tonnes of wheat along with 0.5 million metric tonnes of wheat-based products. The decision follows sustained representations from farmer organisations and trade associations, which had been pressing for export permissions in view of rising domestic availability and concerns over potential price softening during peak market arrivals.

Policy Shift After Years of Export Controls

The government has indicated that the move is intended to support farmer realisations while maintaining balance in domestic markets. Officials emphasise that the export approval has been calibrated carefully to ensure that national food security remains unaffected. The decision signals a cautious reopening of India’s wheat trade channel rather than a complete removal of earlier restrictions.

Strong Domestic Stocks Provide Confidence

The policy shift comes at a time when wheat availability in the country has improved significantly. During the 2025–26 marketing year, the private sector is estimated to be holding around 7.5 million metric tonnes of wheat, which is roughly 3.2 million metric tonnes higher than the previous year. This increase reflects strong supply conditions outside the government procurement system and points to comfortable market availability.

At the same time, wheat stocks in the central pool managed by the Food Corporation of India are projected to remain robust. By April 1, 2026, central pool reserves are expected to reach approximately 18.2 million metric tonnes, a level considered well above buffer norms. With adequate inventories already in place, policymakers believe that allowing a limited quantity of exports will not strain domestic supply or the public distribution system.

Expanded Wheat Acreage Strengthens Production Outlook

The production outlook has also strengthened. Wheat acreage in the Rabi 2026 season has expanded to 33.417 million hectares, compared with 32.804 million hectares in the previous year. The increase in sown area, coupled with favourable crop conditions, has raised expectations of a healthy harvest. In such a scenario, export permissions are seen as a mechanism to absorb surplus production and prevent a decline in market prices when fresh arrivals intensify.

From 2022 Ban to a Calibrated Re-entry into Global Markets

India had imposed a ban on wheat exports in May 2022 following an extreme heatwave that affected yields and tightened domestic supplies. The situation was further complicated by global market disruptions triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict, which led to sharp increases in international wheat prices. At the time, the government restricted exports to stabilise domestic prices and safeguard food security.

The present decision reflects a markedly different supply environment. With production prospects improving, inventories comfortable, and prices relatively stable, authorities have opted for a controlled reopening of exports rather than a full-scale liberalisation. The measured approach signals an attempt to balance farmer interests, inflation management, and food security considerations while allowing India to re-engage selectively with global wheat markets.

Market observers view the approval as an indicator of confidence in the domestic crop outlook and supply position. Whether this evolves into a broader easing of export controls in the coming marketing year will depend on final production estimates, procurement trends, and price behaviour in the months ahead.

Global Agriculture will continue to monitor developments as India navigates this cautious return to the international wheat trade.

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