India Releases First Advance Estimates for 2025–26 Kharif Production, Projects Record Output Growth
26 November 2025, New Delhi: Union Minister for Agriculture, Farmers Welfare and Rural Development, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, has released the First Advance Estimates of major Kharif crop production for 2025–26, projecting a significant rise in output across key foodgrain categories. According to the Ministry, India is expected to produce 1733.30 lakh tonnes of total Kharif foodgrains, an increase of 38.70 lakh tonnes over last year, driven largely by improved rice and maize yields.
Chouhan said the latest projections reflect the positive momentum in India’s farm sector under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has focused on strengthening productivity, resilience, and market stability. He noted that although excessive rainfall in isolated regions caused some crop stress, most agricultural zones benefitted from a supportive monsoon, resulting in strong crop growth across states.
Strong Outlook for Rice and Maize Production
The First Advance Estimates indicate a robust rise in rice production, which is expected to reach 1245.04 lakh tonnes, marking a growth of 17.32 lakh tonnes compared to last year’s Kharif output. Maize is projected to post even stronger gains, with an estimated production of 283.03 lakh tonnes, reflecting an increase of 34.95 lakh tonnes over the previous season. Together, these crops are expected to form the backbone of this year’s foodgrain growth.
The Ministry further projects that total Kharif nutri and coarse cereals will reach 414.14 lakh tonnes, supported by stable acreage trends and improved early-season rainfall. Kharif pulses production is estimated at 74.13 lakh tonnes, including 35.97 lakh tonnes of tur, 12.05 lakh tonnes of urad, and 17.20 lakh tonnes of moong, suggesting a steady outlook for the country’s pulse supply.
Oilseeds, Cotton and Sugarcane Also Expected to Rise
India’s Kharif oilseed output for 2025–26 is likely to touch 275.63 lakh tonnes, reflecting firm gains led by groundnut and soybean. Groundnut production is estimated at 110.93 lakh tonnes, showing an increase of 6.81 lakh tonnes over last year, while soybean output is expected to reach 142.66 lakh tonnes. The estimates suggest stability in oilseed cultivation despite weather-related challenges in some regions.
A strong upward trend is visible in sugarcane as well, with production projected at 4756.14 lakh tonnes, an expansion of 210.03 lakh tonnes compared to last season. Cotton production is forecast at 292.15 lakh bales (170 kg each), while jute and mesta output is expected to reach 83.45 lakh bales (180 kg each), indicating a balanced performance across major commercial crops.
Estimates Based on State Inputs and Field Trends
The Ministry emphasised that these are advance estimates prepared using past yield patterns, regional observations and early-season reports provided by state governments. Adjustments may be made once crop-cutting experiment data becomes available later in the agricultural year.
First Advance Estimates of Kharif Crop Production 2025–26 (Production in lakh tonnes)
| Crop Category | 2025–26 Estimate | Increase/Decrease Over Last Year |
|---|---|---|
| Total Kharif Foodgrains | 1733.30 | +38.70 |
| Rice (Kharif) | 1245.04 | +17.32 |
| Maize | 283.03 | +34.95 |
| Nutri/Coarse Cereals | 414.14 | — |
| Total Pulses (Kharif) | 74.13 | — |
| Tur | 35.97 | — |
| Urad | 12.05 | — |
| Moong | 17.20 | — |
| Total Oilseeds (Kharif) | 275.63 | — |
| Groundnut | 110.93 | +6.81 |
| Soybean | 142.66 | — |
| Sugarcane | 4756.14 | +210.03 |
| Cotton (lakh bales) | 292.15 | — |
| Jute & Mesta (lakh bales) | 83.45 | — |
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