U.S. Spring Planting 2026: Soybean Acreage Set to Rise 6% as Corn, Rice and Cotton Decline – CoBank Outlook

25 February 2026, Washington: As U.S. farmers prepare for the 2026 spring planting season, economic pressures are reshaping cropping decisions across the country. Weak commodity prices combined with persistently high input costs are forcing growers to reassess which crops can deliver the most competitive returns. While late-winter price shifts and regional basis movements could still influence final planting intentions, early projections suggest a notable shift in acreage toward soybeans at the expense of several other major crops.

A new outlook from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange indicates that soybeans are positioned to expand their footprint across American farmland in 2026. U.S. soybean acreage is projected to rise nearly 6 percent year-on-year, drawing land away from corn, wheat, grain sorghum, cotton and rice. The expansion of domestic soy crush capacity, coupled with expectations of continued Chinese demand, has strengthened soybean price prospects relative to competing crops.

Soybeans Gain Momentum Over Corn and Other Crops

According to CoBank’s analysis, U.S. soybean acreage is expected to increase 5.9 percent to approximately 86 million acres in 2026. Recent price rallies have enhanced soybeans’ relative profitability compared to corn, wheat, sorghum, cotton and rice. Market participants are also anticipating that the Environmental Protection Agency will announce higher renewable volume obligations, a factor that could further support soybean-based biofuel demand.

Beyond price signals, crop rotation dynamics are playing a crucial role. Following a surge in corn acreage in 2025 — which reached its highest level in decades — more fields are now available to rotate into soybeans. Record corn inventories in storage are also prompting farmers to diversify marketing risk by shifting acreage. In the Midwest and Central Plains, wheat and corn acres are expected to give way to soybeans, while in the southern United States soybeans are likely to take land from cotton, rice and corn.

The Northern Plains present a contrasting picture. Soybean basis levels in the region remain under pressure due to reduced exports to China, leading some growers to favor corn instead. In addition, soybean yield performance there has lagged behind corn in recent seasons.

Total U.S. corn acreage is projected at 94 million acres, representing a 4.8 percent decline from last year. Despite the overall reduction, corn is expected to expand in certain western states, displacing wheat, grain sorghum and soybeans. Steadier domestic demand, particularly from feedlots, and improved crop insurance premiums are supporting corn’s competitiveness in select regions. However, in key Midwest states, record corn stocks and rotational needs are likely to limit additional corn planting this spring.

Spring Wheat, Durum and Sorghum Face Pressure

Spring wheat acreage is forecast to decline 1 percent to 9.89 million acres. Comparatively weaker yield performance and lower profit potential relative to corn have reduced its appeal. The gradual westward expansion of corn acreage has also come at wheat’s expense. However, acreage plans could shift if the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s March Prospective Plantings report signals a substantial drop in wheat acres and triggers a price rally.

Durum wheat area is projected to fall 3 percent to 2.12 million acres. After an acreage surge last year that pushed plantings to an eight-year high, abundant supplies in both the United States and Canada have pressured prices. Concentrated largely in North Dakota, durum acres are expected to lose ground to pulse crops and spring wheat.

Grain sorghum acreage is forecast to decline 5 percent to 6.31 million acres. Wider sorghum basis levels, elevated domestic stocks following a strong harvest last year, and significant premiums for corn over sorghum are discouraging production. Improved soil moisture across the Central Plains and corn’s strong yield performance are encouraging farmers to expand corn acreage at sorghum’s expense. Nonetheless, sorghum could regain momentum if export demand from China strengthens further.

Cotton and Rice Hit Multi-Year Lows

U.S. cotton planted acreage is projected at 9.19 million acres, a 1 percent year-on-year decline that would mark the lowest level in 11 years. In the South, cotton acreage is expected to shift toward soybeans, while irrigated cotton fields in the Plains are likely to transition to corn. Sluggish U.S. cotton exports to China, rising competition from Brazil and Australia, and the growing use of synthetic fibers have limited price recovery. Base acreage payments, however, are expected to provide some stability and prevent a sharper contraction.

Rice faces the steepest decline among major commodities. Total U.S. rice acreage is projected at 2.83 million acres — the lowest in three decades and a 20 percent drop compared to last year. Long-grain rice in the South is expected to fall 25 percent to 1.59 million acres, while medium- and short-grain rice area is forecast to decline 4.6 percent to 665,000 acres.

Rice remains the most expensive major crop to plant, and weak price performance has compounded profitability challenges. Subsidized rice exports from India are weighing on global markets, while increased South American shipments to key destinations such as Mexico are displacing U.S. supplies. As a result, many southern farmers are expected to pivot toward soybeans as a more economically viable alternative to long-grain rice.

Overall, CoBank’s projections highlight a broad recalibration of U.S. cropping patterns in 2026. With margins under pressure, farmers are prioritizing crops that offer stronger price signals, better rotational fit, and more stable demand prospects — positioning soybeans as the primary beneficiary of this year’s acreage shifts.

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