LATAM Agriculture

Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 179.0 Million Tons

12 February 2026, Brazil: Over the weekend, rain favored east central and northwestern growing areas of Brazil. The rainfall in Mato Grosso slowed soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting a bit. Rainfall this week will once again favor northern Brazil. Dryness remains a concern in southern Brazil, with some rain in the forecast for southern Brazil next week.

Brazil soybeans were 16% harvested as of late last week compared to 15% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 6% for the week. Harvesting is now under way in nearly all the major states with Mato Grosso 39% harvested, Parana 14%, and Goias 3%.

There are now two concerns in Brazil – poor quality seed in parts of northern Mato Grosso and continued hot and dry conditions in southern Brazil, especially Rio Grande do Sul and southern Mato Grosso do Sul. I view both of these situations as something that may not necessarily result in a lower estimate (at least not yet) but could keep the estimate from moving higher. Therefore, the 2025/26 Brazil soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 179.0 million tons.

Mato Grosso – Soybeans in Mato Grosso were 39.6% harvested as of last Friday compared to 28.5% last year and 25.7% average. This represents an advance of 14.6% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in the mid-north region where 58% of the soybeans have been harvested.

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