AI Monsoon Alerts Influence Sowing Decisions of Up to 52% Farmers, Government Survey Finds
18 December 2025, New Delhi: In a significant step towards data-driven agriculture, the Government of India has revealed that an AI-based monsoon forecasting pilot influenced planting decisions of 31–52 per cent farmers in select regions during the Kharif 2025 season.
The pilot project, implemented by the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare in collaboration with the Development Innovation Lab–India, focused on generating localised monsoon onset forecasts—a critical factor for deciding sowing dates. The initiative covered agriculturally relevant locations across 13 states and relied on an open-source blended artificial intelligence model.
The forecasting system combined Google’s NeuralGCM, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), and 125 years of historical rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Unlike conventional seasonal forecasts, the AI model generated probabilistic predictions only for local monsoon onset, enabling farmers to make more precise and timely decisions.
These location-specific alerts were disseminated via SMS through the M-Kisan portal to nearly 38.8 crore farmersacross the 13 states. Messages were delivered in **five regional languages—Hindi, Odia, Marathi, Bangla, and Punjabi—**to ensure wider comprehension and accessibility. Notably, the pilot was conducted without any financial assistance or subsidy, relying purely on advisory dissemination.
To assess the impact, telephonic feedback surveys were conducted through Kisan Call Centres in Madhya Pradesh and Bihar after the advisories were sent. According to the survey findings, a substantial proportion of farmers altered their agricultural practices. Between 31 and 52 per cent of respondents reported adjusting their planting decisions, mainly by modifying land preparation schedules and sowing dates. In several cases, farmers also changed crop selection and input choices, indicating a tangible behavioural shift driven by the AI-based advisories.
The government views these results as an encouraging indicator of how artificial intelligence can enhance decision-making at the farm level, particularly in the face of increasing climate variability.
The details of the pilot and its outcomes were shared by Minister of State for Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Ramnath Thakur, in a written reply to the Lok Sabha on December 2, 2025.
As India looks to strengthen climate-resilient agriculture, the pilot underscores the growing role of AI-led weather intelligence in empowering farmers with timely, actionable information—without adding to their financial burden.
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