14 November 2026, Beijing, CN: China’s soybean imports fell to 7.35 million metric tons in October, a drop of 22.5 percent from the record 9.48 million tons brought in during the same month a year earlier and a decline of roughly 38 percent from September, according to customs data released this month.
The October total was described as the country’s lowest for that month since 2023 and came in well below trade analysts’ expectations of around 9.5 million tons a month for the fourth quarter. For the first ten months of 2026, China’s cumulative soybean imports reached 93.48 million tons, down 2.3 percent from the same period of 2025.
Crush margins and tariffs weigh on demand
Several factors were cited for the pullback. High inventories held by Chinese crushing plants and weak crush margins slowed both purchasing and shipment scheduling through October, while a seasonal supply gap added further pressure on volumes. South American exporters were running low on old-crop soybeans available for shipment during the month, while bulk shipments of new-crop soybeans from the United States had not yet begun in volume. Import tariffs have also continued to keep most US soybean cargoes out of reach for Chinese buyers, limiting the alternative supply available to fill that gap.
Liu Jinlu, an agriculture researcher at Beijing-based Guoyan Futures, said a meaningful recovery in import volumes during November and December will depend on the trajectory of China-US trade relations and on whether crushing margins improve from their current weak levels. Soybean crushers process the beans into meal for animal feed and oil for cooking and industrial uses, and persistently negative margins can lead processors to delay purchases or run plants below capacity.
Demand pressure from the hog sector has compounded the slowdown. China’s statistics bureau reported in late October that the national breeding sow herd stood at 36.02 million head at the end of September, down 10.7 percent from three months earlier, as low pork prices have prompted producers to cull sows and scale back production. Since soybean meal is the primary protein source in hog feed rations, a shrinking breeding herd reduces the volume of meal, and by extension whole soybeans, that crushers need to supply the market.
The import slowdown comes against the backdrop of an uneven trade relationship between China and the United States that has swung between periods of resumed purchases and near-total halts over the past two years. China had imported no US soybeans at all for stretches of 2025, before resuming some purchases following diplomatic engagement between the two governments. Whether that engagement translates into a sustained pickup in US cargo bookings over the remainder of the current marketing year remains, according to Liu, dependent on further progress in the broader trade relationship rather than on price alone.
Brazil has remained China’s dominant supplier through the period of reduced US access, though October’s overall import total suggests that even Brazilian old-crop availability was constrained heading into the Southern Hemisphere’s new growing season. With new-crop US soybeans beginning to move in larger volumes in the weeks ahead, analysts will be watching November and December customs data closely for signs of whether China’s total import pace recovers toward the levels seen earlier in the year or continues to lag behind the prior year’s record pace.
China is the world’s largest soybean importer by a wide margin, buying the bean primarily to crush into meal for its hog, poultry and aquaculture feed industries and into oil for cooking and industrial use, which means swings in Chinese buying volumes tend to have an outsized effect on global soybean prices and on planting decisions in both North and South America. The country’s reliance on imported soybeans, rather than domestic production, dates back to policy choices made decades ago that prioritized self-sufficiency in grains such as rice, wheat and corn over oilseeds, leaving soybean demand to be met overwhelmingly through purchases from Brazil, the United States and Argentina.
The current import slowdown also comes at a point in the marketing year when Chinese buyers would typically be securing cargoes for delivery through the winter months, making the scale of October’s shortfall notable even against the backdrop of a Brazilian harvest that is expected to be large. Whether Chinese crushers draw down existing inventories further before stepping up fresh purchases, or wait for clearer signals on both crush margins and the trade relationship with Washington, is likely to shape how quickly the country’s import pace normalizes in the final two months of the year.
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