USDA Reports Record Soybean Yield, Bigger Corn Crop in October Forecast
16 October 2026, Washington, D.C.: The United States Department of Agriculture startled grain markets on October 9 with its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, raising its corn yield forecast far more sharply than traders expected and confirming a record soybean crop, even as the US wheat harvest fell to its smallest size since 1970.
USDA now projects the national corn yield at 181.1 bushels per acre, up 2.7 bushels from September and 3.6 bushels above the average pre report trade estimate compiled by Dow Jones. That lifted projected corn production to 16.034 billion bushels, 234 million bushels higher than the September estimate and 318 million bushels above what traders had expected. The larger crop pushed projected ending stocks up by 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion, and USDA trimmed its season average farm price forecast by 10 cents to $4.70 a bushel.
Soybeans told a similar story. USDA raised its yield estimate to a record 53.1 bushels per acre, slightly above both the September figure and the pre report trade average of 52.9 bushels. Projected production rose to a record 4.562 billion bushels. Export forecasts were also raised, by 10 million bushels to 1.695 billion, and ending stocks rose to 315 million bushels. The season average soybean price held steady at $12.00 a bushel, supported by the stronger export outlook even as supply increased.
Wheat moved in the opposite direction on size but still surprised slightly to the upside on yield. Total US wheat production came in at 1.534 billion bushels, the smallest crop since 1970, even though the national yield estimate rose from 47.8 to 48.1 bushels per acre. Ending stocks rose by 23 million bushels to 740 million, and the season average price forecast was cut 10 cents to $6.30 a bushel.
A volatile reaction in grain markets
The scale of the corn yield increase briefly sent December corn futures limit down before the contract recovered part of its losses to close down 20.5 cents at $4.79 and three quarters. Analysts attributed part of the early selloff to large speculative long positions built up ahead of the report, compounded by an earlier increase in September corn stocks. November soybean futures moved the other way, rallying more than 22 cents off their session low to close up 4.5 cents at $12.94, as the bigger export number offset the modestly larger crop. December Kansas City wheat futures closed down 17 cents at $7.19 and a quarter.
A global supply story, not just a US one
The October WASDE report also revised figures well beyond US borders. World corn ending stocks rose 8.3 million metric tonnes to 280.4 million, with the United States accounting for just over 7 million tonnes of that increase; USDA also cut its European Union corn production estimate to 48 million tonnes and raised its figure for Argentine corn stocks. World soybean ending stocks edged up 0.3 million tonnes to 124.3 million, while the global palm oil production estimate was cut by 2.5 million tonnes to its lowest level since the 2017-18 season. On wheat, USDA trimmed EU production by 800,000 tonnes while raising estimates for Canada and Turkey by 500,000 tonnes each, and it cut Russia’s wheat export forecast by 3 million tonnes to 40 million, the lowest in five years, even as global wheat ending stocks were left roughly unchanged at 276 million tonnes.
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