USDA Cuts Corn Production Outlook, Raises Soybean Forecast

11 November 2026, Washington, US: The US Department of Agriculture trimmed its forecast for the 2026/27 corn crop and raised its soybean outlook in the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released on Tuesday. The monthly report is the government’s benchmark assessment of US and global crop supply and demand, and it showed a mixed picture for the country’s two largest row crops heading into the winter.

Corn production was lowered by 141 million bushels to 15.9 billion bushels, reflecting a cut in the national average yield to 179.6 bushels per acre, down 1.6 bushels from October’s estimate of 181.2 bushels per acre. The revised yield also came in below the average trade expectation of 180.3 bushels per acre heading into the report. Ending stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year were estimated at 1.758 billion bushels, with the stocks-to-use ratio sitting just above 10 percent. USDA reduced its projections for both corn exports and feed use in the same report, and lowered the season-average farm price by 10 cents to $4.60 per bushel.

Soybean production moved in the opposite direction. USDA raised its estimate by 12 million bushels to 4.6 billion bushels, citing stronger-than-expected yields in Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska. The national yield estimate rose to 53.3 bushels per acre, up two-tenths of a bushel from October, though it still landed two-tenths of a bushel below trade expectations. Ending stocks for 2026/27 were cut by 15 million bushels to 300 million bushels, a tighter balance sheet that reflected a 25-million-bushel increase in the export forecast. The season-average soybean price was raised by 10 cents to $12.10 per bushel, with the report pointing to continued Chinese purchasing interest as a supporting factor for demand.

Wheat and Cotton Figures Also Adjusted

For wheat, USDA raised its 2026/27 ending stocks estimate slightly to 743 million bushels, a figure that remains 19 percent below the prior marketing year’s level. The season-average wheat price was trimmed by 10 cents to $6.20 per bushel. Cotton production was revised down by 267,000 bales to 13.18 million bales for the year.

The report is one of twelve issued annually by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board, compiling input from multiple federal agencies to produce the government’s official supply and demand estimates for major field crops, livestock and dairy products. Market participants use the monthly figures to gauge the balance between production, consumption, exports and carryover stocks for the current marketing year, which for most US row crops runs from September through August.

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