USDA Trims US Corn Outlook, Lifts Global Wheat Stocks in September Report
14 September 2026, Washington, D.C.: The US Department of Agriculture cut its estimate of the 2026-27 US corn crop and raised its projection of global wheat ending stocks in the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released on September 11. The monthly release is one of the most closely watched data points in world agriculture, and this edition reset price benchmarks that traders, governments and agribusinesses across the globe use to plan purchases, subsidies and input sales for the coming two quarters.
USDA lowered the national average corn yield to 178.5 bushels per acre, down from 180.7 bushels per acre estimated in August. Total corn production is now projected at 15.80 billion bushels, down from 16.01 billion bushels a month earlier and well below the record 17.02 billion bushels harvested in the 2025-26 season. Corn ending stocks for the marketing year that began September 1 were lowered to 1.567 billion bushels from 1.653 billion bushels in August.
Soybeans moved in the opposite direction. Yield edged up marginally to 52.8 bushels per acre from 52.7 bushels, pushing total production to 4.535 billion bushels, above the 4.262 billion bushels harvested in 2025-26. But USDA trimmed soybean ending stocks to 310 million bushels from 320 million, a signal that the agency expects demand, driven mainly by exports to China, to draw down the crop faster than earlier projected.
US wheat ending stocks held steady at 717 million bushels, unchanged from August. The bigger move was in the global wheat figure, which USDA raised on larger harvests reported from competing exporting countries. Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, described it as “more of a global story,” noting that “the US numbers were pretty well steady, but a larger crop from some of the key export areas … pushed global ending stocks for wheat higher.” For the 2026-27 season, USDA now projects world ending stocks of 272.1 million metric tons for corn, 124.0 million metric tons for soybeans and 276.3 million metric tons for wheat.
A smaller cut than the trade expected
The corn yield reduction was notable, but smaller than many private forecasters anticipated. Pro Farmer’s late-August crop tour, which sends scouts into fields across the Corn Belt to count ears and estimate kernel weights, had pegged the national yield closer to 173 bushels per acre after finding disappointing results in areas hit by August heat and dryness. USDA’s official figure came in nearly 5.5 bushels above that estimate, partly because September is the first month in which the agency incorporates objective, field-sampled yield data rather than relying solely on farmer surveys. Nelson said the report largely “validated trade expectations” rather than delivering a fresh shock, and helped explain some of the unusual price rally that had already occurred in grain futures ahead of harvest.
Trade diplomacy still shaping demand
The report landed against the backdrop of a fragile but functioning agricultural trade arrangement between Washington and Beijing. China has been the dominant buyer of the new 2026-27 US soybean crop, accounting for roughly two-thirds of new-crop export sales booked so far, following a mid-2026 agreement under which China agreed to drop a 10 percent retaliatory tariff on US farm goods in exchange for the United States lifting a matching tariff tied to fentanyl-related sanctions. That change is expected to take effect around October 1, timed to the start of the US export season when Brazilian soybean supplies typically thin out. The tighter soybean stocks figure in this WASDE suggests Chinese demand, not the tariff move alone, is doing real work to support US prices.
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