12 September 2026, New Delhi: India’s total area sown under kharif crops this season has fallen below last year’s level, driven mainly by a sharp drop in rice acreage, as an uneven and below normal monsoon weighed on planting across several major growing states.
According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, total kharif sowing stood at 1,086.31 lakh hectares as of September 4, down 17.69 lakh hectares from 1,104.00 lakh hectares at the same point last year, and below the normal, long period average level of roughly 1,104.44 lakh hectares. Rice accounted for the largest share of the decline, with area down 16.37 lakh hectares to 421.82 lakh hectares. Oilseeds, cotton, coarse cereals and sugarcane also registered smaller declines. Pulses and jute and mesta were the exceptions, posting modest gains of 1.83 lakh hectares and 0.10 lakh hectares respectively, with jute reaching a record level for the season.
The rice shortfall was concentrated in a handful of states. Karnataka recorded the largest decline at 4.28 lakh hectares, followed by Telangana at 3.61 lakh hectares, Andhra Pradesh at 1.91 lakh hectares, Uttar Pradesh at 1.84 lakh hectares and Madhya Pradesh at 1.75 lakh hectares. Assam and Odisha were among the few states to post rice sowing gains.
A monsoon that fell short of even its lowered forecast
The sowing shortfall follows a monsoon season that underperformed even the India Meteorological Department’s own revised expectations. IMD’s initial April forecast had put the 2026 monsoon at 92 percent of the long period average, but the agency revised that down to 90 percent in late May, while raising the probability of deficient rainfall from 35 percent to 60 percent. Actual rainfall tracked below even that lowered bar for much of the season. June rainfall came in roughly 40 percent short of normal before July rebounded to slightly above normal, and the cumulative June to August shortfall stood at around 13 to 14 percent below normal by early September, with August alone showing a 16 percent deficit, one of the driest Augusts recorded since 2001.
Rainfall performance varied widely by region. Meghalaya, Manipur, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Punjab were among the states with the largest deficits, several exceeding 30 to 40 percent below normal, while Odisha and Delhi recorded surpluses. IMD Director General Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said late last month that parts of the northwest, northeast, east and southeast peninsular regions were likely to see normal to above normal rainfall in September, offering some late season relief, though monsoon withdrawal was expected to begin around mid month.
Despite the shortfall, officials have pushed back against reading the numbers as alarming. Agriculture Secretary Atish Chandra said in August that sowing had shown significant catch up since June, and that the government was encouraging states to keep available land under cultivation even where planting was delayed, backed by periodic reviews with state governments. It is also worth noting that this year’s decline follows an unusually strong base, with 2025-26 having produced a record rice crop of about 124.5 million tonnes, meaning this season’s pullback represents a moderation from an exceptional year rather than an outright collapse.
What it means for input demand
For India’s agri-input industry, the sowing pattern points to a mixed rather than uniformly weak season. Lower rice, cotton, soybean and groundnut acreage suggests softer seed and input demand in those crops, while gains in pulses such as urad and tur, along with jute, point to pockets of stronger demand elsewhere. Industry voices in the specialty fertilizer segment have noted that patchy rainfall can paradoxically boost demand for water soluble and foliar nutrients, as farmers try to rescue moisture stressed standing crops, even as overall bulk fertilizer volumes soften. Crop protection demand tends to follow a similar mixed pattern, since delayed transplanting and moisture stress can raise disease and pest pressure on the crop that does get planted, even as total treated acreage shrinks.
The government has set a paddy procurement target of 708.64 lakh tonnes for this kharif marketing season, signaling confidence that overall food grain supply will remain adequate despite the lower rice acreage. Globally, the shortfall carries added significance given that world rice production for 2026-27 had already been projected to decline for the first time in eleven years, with India among the largest contributors to that drop, a dynamic that keeps global rice and food price watchers focused on how India’s harvest ultimately turns out.
For India’s fertilizer, seed and crop protection companies, the season is a reminder to track the changing crop mix as closely as the aggregate hectare figure, since demand is shifting away from rice, cotton and oilseeds and toward pulses and jute in a year when monsoon variability, not a simple shortfall, is shaping the picture.
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