USDA Cuts Corn Yield Estimate, Soybean Production Hits Record High in September WASDE
12 September 2026, Washington, D.C.: The US Department of Agriculture trimmed its national corn yield forecast for the second straight month on Friday, while raising its soybean production estimate to an all time high, in a report that trade analysts said validated a summer of deteriorating crop conditions across the Corn Belt.
The September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board, put the 2026/27 US corn yield at 178.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from August’s 180.7 bushel estimate. Corn production is now projected at 15.8 billion bushels, down from 16.013 billion bushels in August. US corn ending stocks were cut to 1.567 billion bushels, a reduction of 86 million bushels from last month. USDA raised its season average farm price for corn by 30 cents to $4.80 per bushel.
Soybeans moved in the opposite direction. USDA nudged the yield estimate up slightly to 52.8 bushels per acre from 52.7 bushels, pushing production to a record 4.535 billion bushels. Despite the higher output, ending stocks were cut to 310 million bushels from 320 million bushels in August, after USDA raised its export forecast by 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion, reflecting stronger demand, much of it linked to Chinese purchasing. The soybean season average price was raised 60 cents to $12.00 per bushel. Wheat ending stocks held roughly steady at 717 million bushels, with the price raised 20 cents to $6.40 per bushel.
Corn belt heat and a first look at objective yield data
This was the first September WASDE to incorporate USDA’s objective yield survey, where field agents count and measure ears and pods directly rather than relying solely on farmer surveys, a change the trade had watched for closely given how uneven the growing season had been. Corn conditions had slid through late August, with the crop rated 56 percent good to excellent as of the Crop Progress report dated September 8, the lowest reading for a September opener in three years. Iowa State University Extension cropping systems specialist Mark Licht said the cumulative stress of the season, including nitrogen deficiency in corn and sudden death syndrome showing up in soybeans, was becoming visible in the fields.
Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, said the report confirmed what the market had largely already priced in, noting USDA had reduced the national corn yield “from 180.7 to 178 and a half bushels per acre” in a report that broadly matched trade expectations. Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, said the bigger worry going in had been whether the yield would come in above 180 bushels, which would have signaled a much larger crop than the market anticipated.
Even so, the actual numbers still landed above the average trade guess heading into the report, which meant futures markets reacted with mild profit taking rather than a rally. December corn and November soybean futures both eased modestly on the Chicago Board of Trade following the release, continuing a pause after a sharp price run up through late August.
Globally, USDA cut its world corn ending stocks estimate to 272.1 million metric tons, down roughly 2.6 million tons from August, with Russia’s crop lowered while Ukraine and Brazil were left unchanged. World wheat ending stocks were raised to about 276.3 million metric tons on better crops in Australia and Canada, though that figure remains lower than a year ago, with losses in the Black Sea region, Kazakhstan and the European Union.
Why this matters beyond the US
The report landed at a politically sensitive moment, roughly two weeks ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s planned visit to Washington, with Chinese state buyers actively purchasing US soybeans under a bilateral agreement reached earlier this year. USDA’s higher soybean export number depends heavily on China following through on that commitment, making Beijing’s buying pace as important to US farmers as the weather was this summer.
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