Across 39 Countries, Asia-Pacific Agriculture Faces a New Era of Compounding Risks
22 April 2026, Brunei Darussalam: The future of food security in Asia and the Pacific will depend not only on how much the region produces, but on how well it can withstand shocks. That is the central message emerging from the 38th Session of the FAO Regional Conference for Asia and the Pacific, where policymakers and experts are focusing on one of the most urgent challenges of this decade: strengthening the resilience of agrifood systems.
Across the region, farmers, fishers, food processors, traders and consumers are navigating a dangerous convergence of risks. Climate extremes, environmental degradation, conflict, trade volatility and widening inequality are no longer isolated disruptions. They are increasingly interconnected, creating cascading impacts on food production, rural livelihoods and access to nutritious diets. For a region that feeds billions and remains home to the majority of the world’s smallholder farmers, the stakes are exceptionally high.
Multiple Risks Are Hitting at Once
FAO’s latest assessment shows that ten out of 39 countries in Asia and the Pacific face high risks across two or more dimensions simultaneously. Six countries are exposed across all four major risk categories: environmental, climate, social and economic. Another four countries face three-dimensional pressure. This signals a structural shift in how risk must be understood. Traditional single-hazard planning is no longer enough.
Environmental risk remains widespread. Seventeen countries, representing 44 percent of the region, face high environmental threats. River flooding and earthquakes each affect around 19 to 20 countries at high levels, while tsunami exposure is particularly severe, impacting 27 countries. South Asia, Southeast Asia and East Asia remain highly vulnerable to floods and seismic shocks, while Pacific island nations face acute tsunami threats.
At the same time, land degradation is worsening vulnerability. In several countries including Bangladesh, Myanmar, Cambodia and Lao PDR, more than 70 percent of agricultural land is estimated to be affected by degradation linked to unsustainable land management. That means lower productivity, weaker soil health and reduced resilience when disasters strike.
Climate Change Is Intensifying the Crisis
The region experienced its warmest year on record in 2024, with temperatures around 1.04°C above the 1991 to 2020 average. Extreme weather events followed. The Philippines saw an unprecedented late cyclone season with 12 storms between September and November, more than double the normal level, affecting over 13 million people. Typhoon Yagi caused destruction across China, Myanmar, Thailand, Viet Nam, the Philippines and Lao PDR, with more than 1,000 reported deaths.
Floods remain the most frequent and economically damaging hazard in Asia and the Pacific. They destroy crops, damage irrigation systems, kill livestock and cut off transport routes. FAO notes that disaster-related losses in agriculture are equivalent to around 5 percent of global agricultural GDP, with Asia accounting for nearly half of worldwide agricultural losses.
The region also faces growing threats from droughts, sand and dust storms, coastal flooding and changing pest and disease patterns linked to shifting temperatures and rainfall. These emerging risks often receive less attention than floods and cyclones, but they can be equally damaging over time.
Pollution and Resource Stress Add Hidden Pressure
Beyond weather shocks, the report warns of mounting contamination in soils and water systems. Asia has become a global hotspot for agrochemical use, and combined with poor waste management and industrial discharge, this has led to the accumulation of arsenic, cadmium, lead, mercury, microplastics and other pollutants.
These contaminants are degrading soil fertility, harming biodiversity, disrupting nutrient cycles and threatening human and animal health. In South Asia’s Bengal delta, for example, intensive groundwater extraction for irrigation has accelerated arsenic mobilisation, creating long-term risks for farming communities.
Economic Volatility Is Reshaping Food Security
Economic risk is high in 18 countries, or 46 percent of the region. Many Pacific island economies are especially vulnerable due to their dependence on imports and exposure to shipping disruptions. The Red Sea crisis in 2024 increased transport costs and food inflation, with small island states experiencing nearly double the inflationary impact seen in larger Asian economies.
Terms-of-trade volatility is also hitting commodity-dependent countries such as Mongolia, Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste, where export revenues fluctuate sharply with global market prices. For rural economies already under strain, these shocks quickly translate into lower incomes and higher food costs.
Smallholders Remain Central and Vulnerable
Asia and the Pacific is home to 70 percent of the world’s family farmers. Small-scale producers, including farmers, fishers, herders and forest-dependent communities, generate around 80 percent of the region’s food. Yet many operate on fragmented landholdings with limited access to finance, irrigation, markets, insurance and advisory services.
Small-scale fisheries alone support the livelihoods of around 46 million people in the region, with women making up 40 percent of the workforce. These systems are essential for nutrition, employment and export earnings, but they are also highly exposed to climate and market shocks.
Hunger Is Falling, But Diet Affordability Remains a Major Concern
There is progress. The prevalence of undernourishment in the region fell to 6.4 percent in 2024, down from 7.0 percent in 2023, allowing around 25 million people to escape hunger in a single year. Yet nearly 40 percent of the world’s undernourished people still live in Asia and the Pacific, with South Asia carrying the heaviest burden.
Affordability is another challenge. The average cost of a healthy diet in the region reached USD 4.77 per person per day in 2024, above the global average. In South Asia, 41.7 percent of the population cannot afford a healthy diet. Meanwhile, more than 65 million people in countries such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan and Timor-Leste are facing crisis levels of food insecurity or worse.
FAO’s Three Strategic Priorities
To respond, FAO is urging governments and institutions to accelerate action in three priority areas.
1. Better Risk Monitoring and Early Warning
The organisation is promoting tools such as the FAO Risk Monitor, which provides near real-time tracking of weather, environmental and socio-economic threats affecting food security. Rather than reacting after disaster strikes, the aim is to anticipate cascading risks and act earlier.
2. Equity-Focused Resilience
FAO argues that resilience cannot be built if vulnerable groups remain excluded. Women, youth, tenant farmers, Indigenous communities and low-income rural households need better access to land, finance, training, social protection and decision-making systems. Case studies from Pakistan, Viet Nam, Myanmar and Lao PDR show that targeted inclusion programmes can significantly strengthen recovery and long-term resilience.
3. Digital Innovation and Partnerships
Artificial intelligence, machine learning, remote sensing and integrated farmer databases are becoming critical tools for modern risk management. FAO cites examples from Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste and Lao PDR where AI-supported drought and flood systems are helping trigger earlier action and more precise support.
The Bigger Message for Global Agriculture
The Asia-Pacific story matters far beyond the region. This is one of the world’s most important food-producing zones, deeply connected to global grain, rice, seafood, fruit, livestock and input markets. When risks multiply here, the effects ripple through trade flows, commodity prices and food availability worldwide.
The message from Brunei is clear: resilience is no longer a side agenda. It is becoming the foundation of agricultural policy, investment and innovation. The countries that build smarter warning systems, stronger rural institutions, healthier natural resources and more inclusive food economies will be best placed to secure their food future.
For global agriculture, the next era will not be defined only by yields. It will be defined by resilience.
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