Black Sea Wheat Exports Collapse as Shipping Attacks Escalate

13 October 2026, Ukraine: Wheat shipments out of the Black Sea fell to their lowest September level in nine years last month, as a widening campaign of attacks on commercial vessels and port facilities continued to strangle the region’s grain trade, according to AXSMarine shipping data reported by maritime publication Splash247 on October 9.

Black Sea wheat loadings totalled just 1.6 million tonnes in September 2026, down 77.8% from 7.3 million tonnes in September 2025 and down 45.6% from August, the lowest September figure since 2017. For the first nine months of 2026, cumulative wheat loadings reached 36.3 million tonnes, down 12.2% year on year and the second-lowest January-to-September total in the same nine-year span.

Ukraine’s agriculture minister, Taras Vysotskyi, said the country exported 2.4 million tonnes of agricultural products in September, only 46% of its potential volume. The Danube river route carried 1.3 million tonnes, or 54% of the month’s shipments, with most of the remainder moving by rail. Vysotskyi said alternative routes, excluding the main Black Sea deepwater ports around Odesa, can collectively handle only 45% to 50% of Ukraine’s export potential.

Russia’s wheat exports fell by more than 40% year on year over the same period, though the country partly offset this by shifting cargo north: Baltic Sea wheat exports hit a record 1.4 million tonnes in September, about 60% of Russia’s total wheat shipments for the month, as exporters diverted volumes away from southern ports toward Ust-Luga and Vysotsk.

Attacks spread to Romanian and Bulgarian waters

The export decline has coincided with a marked escalation in attacks on shipping, which this autumn spread beyond Ukrainian and Russian waters into the exclusive economic zones of Romania and Bulgaria, both European Union and NATO members. A Turkish-owned vessel carrying Ukrainian corn sank after a drone strike in Romania’s economic zone, killing two seafarers. In Bulgarian waters, one ship sank and another carrying wheat caught fire, with eighteen seafarers rescued and two seriously injured.

Maritime security consultancy Ambrey assessed it was highly likely Russian forces carried out the attacks, though Bulgarian authorities have not formally assigned responsibility. Ambrey said Romanian and Bulgarian waters should no longer be treated as safe by default, a significant shift given both countries’ EU membership and their ports’ role as alternative outlets for Ukrainian grain since 2022.

Freight costs on affected routes have risen sharply as a result. Shipping the Giurgiulesti-to-Constanta grain route, a key Danube-to-Black Sea corridor, now costs around $75 per tonne, up from $15 to $35 previously, with barge operators also carrying smaller cargoes to limit exposure.

The attacks follow a sharp rise in overall maritime incidents this year. Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry recorded 35 attacks on vessels in port and 22 at sea in July alone, plus 67 strikes on port facilities, compared with just 14 vessel attacks across the whole of 2025. Shipping through the Sea of Azov, which feeds the Russian grain port of Taman, has been restricted since July 10, and exports from Novorossiysk and Tuapse have continued but at a reduced pace.

Combined, the disruption has pushed the US Department of Agriculture, via analysis from maritime data firm Ursa, to project that Russian and Ukrainian wheat production will stay roughly flat at 114 million tonnes for the 2026-27 season, but combined exports from the two countries will fall 10.6%, from 62.1 million tonnes to 55.5 million tonnes.

Feeding into global food prices

The lost Black Sea volumes are a visible driver behind this year’s run-up in world food prices. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index reached 136.0 points in September, up 5.8% from a year earlier and its third consecutive monthly rise, according to FAO’s own data. The index’s cereals component rose 5.1% on the month and 17.2% year on year, with wheat prices reaching their highest level since August 2023 and maize its highest in more than three years. FAO’s chief economist, Maximo Torero, described the pattern as a persistent and increasingly broad-based build-up in global commodity prices.

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