Australia Set for a Record Crop But Global Prices Are Set to Steal the Bounty

29 December 2025, Australia: Australia’s farmers are set to harvest one of the largest winter crops on record, but the value of the nation’s crop production will be largely unchanged as bumper volumes are offset by falling global prices, according to the latest report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

The December Agricultural Commodities Report forecasts the total value of Australian crop production to reach $53.4 billion in 2025–26, a marginal increase of 0.2% from the previous year. This comes despite crop production volumes forecast to be 8% higher, driven by favourable seasonal conditions in Western Australia, Queensland, and northern New South Wales.

High Volumes vs. Soft Prices

ABARES Executive Director Dr Jared Greenville said the figures highlight the divergence between domestic production success and challenging global market conditions.

“Australian growers have done exceptionally well this season, with a timely finish in many regions delivering strong yields,” Dr Greenville said. “However, record global grain and oilseed production is weighing heavily on international prices, which means farmers are getting less for more.”

Mixed Fortunes Across Key Commodities

The report reveals a patchy outlook across different crop types for the coming year:

• Wheat: Production is forecast to rise 4% to 35.6 million tonnes, but the value is expected to fall 4% to $11 billion due to an 8% drop in world prices.
• Barley: A record harvest of 15.7 million tonnes (up 18%) is forecast, but value growth is limited to 11%, reaching $4.5 billion.
• Canola: A standout performer, with production forecast to rise 13% and value to jump 18% to $5.7 billion, supported by strong global demand for oilseeds.
• Cotton: Production is forecast to fall 23%, with value dropping 26% to $2.3 billion due to lower area planted, water availability issues, and softer prices.
• Horticulture: The sector is forecast to set a new production value record of $18.9 billion, driven by rising volumes from maturing trees.

Export Picture Reflects Global Glut

The value of Australian crop exports is forecast to rise only 1% to $41.9 billion, as a 6% increase in exportable supply is countered by a 5% fall in average export prices.

“Global stockpiles are building, particularly for grains,” Dr Greenville noted. “This means our export volumes will remain strong, especially for wheat and barley, but the financial return per tonne is under pressure.”

Summer Crop Uncertainty

While the winter crop outcome is largely locked in, ABARES warns that the outlook for summer crops like sorghum is less certain and hinges on rainfall over the coming months. The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook suggests an equal chance of above or below-average summer rain in northern cropping regions.

Key Crop Forecasts for 2025–26:

• Total Crop Production Value: $53.4 billion (~0% change)
• Wheat Production: 35.6 million tonnes (+4%)
• Barley Production: 15.7 million tonnes (+18%) – Record
• Canola Production Value: $5.7 billion (+18%)
• Cotton Production Value: $2.3 billion (-26%)
• Crop Export Value: $41.9 billion (+1%)

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