07 October 2026, Mato Grosso: Brazil’s national supply agency, Conab, is projecting a record 2026/27 soybean harvest of roughly 181.6 million tonnes, part of an overall grain crop the agency pegs at 366.6 million tonnes, even as fieldwork this month is running slower than last year because of uneven early season rain.
Conab set out the figures in the 14th edition of its Agricultural Perspectives report, published September 15 in partnership with Banco do Brasil. The agency projected total 2026/27 grain production up 1.4 percent from the prior season, with soybean output at 181.64 million tonnes grown across 49.3 million hectares. Conab flagged that the 1.4 percent increase in planted area is the slowest expansion of Brazil’s soybean footprint in two decades, a sign that the easy gains from converting new land to soybean are becoming harder to find even as yields keep lifting total output. The agency also projected corn production at around 148 million tonnes, up 2.8 percent, with first cycle corn plantings set to reach their largest area in 13 years.
Private Trackers Confirm the Trend, Flag a Slower Start
Private crop consultancy AgRural, which tracks weekly planting progress and is widely used by traders as a supplement to Conab’s official numbers, updated its own soybean forecast on October 6 to 182.7 million tonnes, broadly consistent with Conab’s government estimate and a touch higher. AgRural put the crop’s planted area at 49.159 million hectares, in line with Conab’s figure. The consultancy’s field data showed Brazilian farmers had planted 7.3 percent of the expected soybean area by early October, against 9.0 percent planted at the same point a year earlier. AgRural analyst Adriano Gomes said yield assumptions at this stage are still based on trend line estimates rather than observed field conditions, since planting remains in its early phase.
The slower pace reflects uneven weather rather than any pullback in farmer intent. Earlier planting reports describe dry breaks interrupting fieldwork in Paraná, frost damage to some fields in Rio Grande do Sul, and Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest grain producing state, only beginning to sow its irrigated areas as the season opened. Brazil’s soybean belt spans a wide enough geography that a slow start in one region can still be offset elsewhere if rains normalise through November, which is why neither Conab nor AgRural has yet pulled back its production estimate despite the lag.
A record Brazilian harvest, if the current official projection holds, would add meaningfully to global soybean supply at a time when the crop is already competing hard with US and Argentine production for export demand, particularly from China. More supply on the water generally weighs on prices, which would benefit countries that buy soybeans, soymeal or soy oil internationally, and would add further pressure to margins for farmers in competing exporting countries.
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