Proposed US Tariff Cut to 18% Sparks Optimism Among Indian Rice Exporters

Expect Stronger Competitiveness and Higher Shipments

03 February 2026, New Delhi: The Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF), through Dr. Prem Garg, National President, has clarified the potential impact of recent indications that Indian-made goods may be subject to an 18% tariff, compared with the earlier rate of 25%.

The trade is also expecting that, in view of public statements by US authorities, the additional penalty being discussed in relation to India’s purchase of Russian oil may be waived. If confirmed, this would effectively reduce India’s tariff burden to 18%, restoring parity with key competing origins such as Thailand and Pakistan, where competitor nations are currently tariffed at around 19%.

Indian Rice Exports to the United States — FY 2024–25

Category	Quantity (MTs)	Amount (INR Cr)	Avg Rate (INR)	Value (USD Mn)	Avg Rate (USD)
Basmati	274,213.00	2,849.16	103,903.00	337.10	1,229.33
Non-Basmati	61,341.00	462.50	75,398.89	54.64	890.73

The Federation has welcomed the move and noted a wave of positive sentiment across the rice export industry, as tariff parity is expected to translate into improved competitiveness and stronger demand in key markets.

IREF views this development as a meaningful positive for Indian rice exports at a time when India is entering the season with record production of approximately 149 million metric tonnes, strong availability, and resilient domestic fundamentals. Indian agricultural products continue to hold an indispensable position in global supply chains, and recent shipment patterns suggest clear demand resilience even under sharply higher duties.

Indian Rice Exports to the United States — April 2025 to November 2025

Category	Quantity (MTs)	Amount (INR Cr)	Avg Rate (INR)	Value (USD Mn)	Avg Rate (USD)
Basmati	199,558.00	1,749.17	87,652.16	201.13	1,007.86
Non-Basmati	40,960.00	284.12	69,365.62	32.71	798.50

Notably, India’s rice exports to the United States increased despite a steep rise in duty—from 10% initially to 50%—underscoring that Indian rice remains essential for buyers and consumers. This trend reinforces the Federation’s view that India’s competitiveness is structurally strong, and that tariff parity will translate quickly into higher volumes and improved price positioning.

A tariff reset would improve landed-price competitiveness and support stronger offtake across both basmati and non-basmati categories, enabling India to defend and expand its market share in the United States while competing more effectively against other origins.

Monthly Comparison of Rice Exports to the US — 2025 vs 2024

(Post-imposition of 50% tariff from 10% initially)

Month	2025 Quantity (MT)	2025 Value (USD Mn)	2024 Quantity (MT)	2024 Value (USD Mn)
September	22,668.00	22.28	21,329.00	27.12
October	29,015.00	28.19	22,606.00	28.18
November	24,156.00	23.72	21,723.00	27.35

Separately, questions have been raised regarding the possibility of an additional tariff in connection with India’s trade with Iran. The Federation noted that evolving trade frameworks, including prospective free trade agreements, often reflect broader strategic alignment and not only commercial considerations. Based on current visibility, IREF does not anticipate further disruption to India’s trade with Iran and expects continuity in export flows.

Mr. Dev Garg, Vice President, stated that the Federation will continue engaging with stakeholders to ensure exporters are prepared for any procedural changes and to support stable, rules-based trade that benefits consumers and global supply chains.

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