10 November 2026, Chicago, US: Adults with prediabetes and obesity who were prescribed GLP-1 medicines were 31% less likely to develop type 2 diabetes over about three years than similar patients given metformin, the standard drug used to prevent the disease. The finding comes from a large records analysis led by a Mayo Clinic researcher. It was presented at the American Heart Association’s Scientific Sessions 2026, held November 6 to 9 in Chicago, and has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal.
Prediabetes is a condition in which blood sugar is higher than normal but not yet high enough to be diagnosed as type 2 diabetes. The American Heart Association (AHA) estimates that nearly 40% of US adults have it. Citing the US National Institutes of Health, it says up to 10% of them progress to type 2 diabetes each year.
GLP-1 receptor agonists mimic glucagon-like peptide-1, a gut hormone that stimulates insulin release, slows stomach emptying and reduces appetite. The class includes semaglutide (sold as Ozempic and Wegovy), tirzepatide (Mounjaro and Zepbound, which also acts on a second hormone, GIP), liraglutide and dulaglutide. All four were included in the analysis.
The researchers drew on TriNetX, a global network of electronic health records, using data from 104 institutions between 2010 and 2023. They identified 256,492 adults with prediabetes and obesity. Their average age was 52, and 76% were women. About half had been prescribed a GLP-1 medicine and half metformin. Patients in the two groups were matched on age, on other medications, and on conditions such as high blood pressure, sleep apnea and nicotine dependence.
People in the GLP-1 group were also 1.5 times as likely to see their blood sugar return to the normal range. During follow-up they had a 41% lower risk of death from any cause, 15% fewer heart attacks, 20% fewer strokes, 25% fewer cases of heart failure and 8% fewer cases of atrial fibrillation, an irregular heart rhythm.
The lead author is Vinicius de Sousa Barzon Serra, a research fellow in the department of cardiovascular medicine at the Mayo Clinic in Scottsdale, Arizona.
The study is observational, so it shows associations rather than proof that GLP-1 drugs caused the better outcomes. Patients were not randomly assigned to treatment, and matching may not fully capture differences in who receives the newer and costlier drugs. The authors noted three further limits: diagnosis codes in health records can be incomplete, prescription records do not show whether patients took their medicine or at what dose, and grouping four drugs together masks differences between them.
The AHA states that abstracts presented at its meetings are not peer reviewed and should be considered preliminary until published in full. The association said co-authors, disclosures and funding sources are listed in the abstract; these could not be independently confirmed for this report. In its standard notice, the AHA also says more than 85% of its revenue comes from non-corporate sources, with the rest including corporate donations.
Food demand implications
The results arrive as GLP-1 use spreads rapidly, with implications for food makers and the farm commodities behind them. Citing 2026 survey information from more than 2,800 US hospitals and health systems, the AHA says about one in ten US adults may now be taking a GLP-1 medicine. The prediabetes population is much larger. If trials support these findings and guidelines change to match, that user base would widen further.
That growth is already registering in food purchasing data. A study from Denmark’s Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen, published in January in JAMA Network Open, analyzed supermarket receipts donated by 293 people who began GLP-1 treatment and 884 matched non-users. After starting treatment, users’ grocery baskets became slightly less energy dense, falling from an average of 209.4 to 207.3 kilocalories per 100 grams. Sugar content per 100 grams fell from 15.7 to 15.1 grams, and protein rose from 6.6 to 6.9 grams. The researchers also reported a shift from ultra-processed toward unprocessed foods. One of that study’s authors disclosed grant funding from the Novo Nordisk Foundation, the controlling shareholder of semaglutide maker Novo Nordisk. Another disclosed grants from Bayer and Novo Nordisk outside the submitted work.
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