China Nears Halfway Mark on US Soybean Pledge Ahead of Xi Visit
15 September 2026, Washington, D.C.: China has purchased close to half of the 25 million metric tons of American soybeans it committed to buying annually through 2028, with fresh cargo bookings arriving just over a week before President Xi Jinping is expected to meet President Donald Trump. The US Department of Agriculture confirmed sales of 340,000 metric tons to China and a further 100,000 tons to an undisclosed buyer widely believed to be Chinese, adding to roughly one million metric tons booked last week alone through 14 to 15 cargoes out of US Gulf terminals for December to February delivery.
The purchases are part of a broader trade understanding reached earlier this year, under which China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of US soybeans by the end of 2025 and 25 million metric tons annually in 2026, 2027 and 2028. China also agreed to resume sorghum and hardwood log purchases and accept tariff relief on beef, pork, dairy, wheat, corn, cotton and aquatic products. Historically, China bought between 25 and 34 million metric tons of US soybeans a year before trade tensions disrupted the relationship, so the new pledge effectively restores, rather than exceeds, past volumes.
A Deal Still Being Tested
Trump has said Xi’s visit would take place around September 24, though Beijing has not formally confirmed the date. Analysts caution that a pledge is not the same as a shipment. Allen Featherstone, who heads the agricultural economics department at Kansas State University, called the arrangement “a bright spot and big news,” while noting the 12 million tonne commitment is “a heavy lift but also a big buy.” He estimated the deal is worth roughly 4.5 billion dollars between now and January, and about 10 billion dollars across the full three years.
Verifying the pace of purchases has been harder than usual. A US government shutdown delayed routine USDA export sales reporting, forcing traders and analysts to rely on commercial shipping data that can vary widely between sources. Trade watchers are also asking whether the newly booked cargoes represent genuinely additional demand or simply a redirection of orders China would have placed anyway, given normal seasonal buying patterns.
The timing matters because Chinese demand is arriving just as Brazilian soybean inventories tighten heading into the South American harvest window. Brazil remains the world’s top soybean exporter, and any sustained shift of Chinese buying back toward the United States reduces the premium Brazilian exporters have enjoyed since 2018, when China first began diversifying away from US supply. It also comes as the latest US government crop report trimmed the domestic corn yield outlook while nudging soybean production higher, a combination that has lifted the US season-average soybean price forecast to around 12 dollars a bushel.
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