03 October 2026, Rome: World food prices rose for a third straight month in September, pushing the United Nations’ benchmark index to its highest level since November 2022, according to a report the Food and Agriculture Organization released on October 2.
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September, up 1.5 percent from August and 5.8 percent above the same month last year. The index remains below the record of roughly 160 points set in March 2022, during the early shock of the Russia Ukraine war, but the latest reading confirms that global food inflation, which had eased through much of 2024 and 2025, is building again.
Cereals and sugar did most of the damage. The cereal sub index climbed 5.1 percent in September, with wheat up 6.3 percent, maize up 5.6 percent and rice up a more modest 1.4 percent. Sugar rose 6.1 percent on tightening supply expectations. Vegetable oils edged up 0.9 percent, led by palm oil, while meat slipped 1.1 percent and dairy was essentially flat, down 0.1 percent.
Shipping bottlenecks compound weather damage
FAO pointed to two overlapping sets of problems. The first is weather: dry conditions across parts of North America, below normal monsoon rainfall in India, and unusually heavy rain in Brazil have all clouded the outlook for this year’s harvests, while strengthening El Niño conditions are adding stress to crops in Southeast Asia. The second is transport. Shipping through the Black Sea remains constrained, and continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, the site of an ongoing standoff between Iran and Western forces since February, is still disrupting tanker and bulk cargo movements through one of the world’s busiest energy and fertilizer shipping corridors.
FAO chief economist Maximo Torero described the pattern as a broad based build up in commodity prices that is increasingly likely to reach supermarket shelves, particularly in countries that depend heavily on imported food and fuel.
The agency’s accompanying cereal supply and demand brief was not reassuring on the production side either. FAO now expects global cereal output to fall 2.1 percent in 2026, to just under 2.98 billion tonnes, while world cereal trade is projected to decline 3.5 percent from the record volumes moved in 2025/26. A smaller harvest moving through a more congested, costlier shipping network is the kind of combination that tends to keep prices elevated for longer than a single bad month would suggest.
The Hormuz disruption deserves particular attention for input buyers. The Persian Gulf region supplies roughly a third of the world’s traded urea and a meaningful share of its ammonia, and the strait itself normally carries close to 30 percent of internationally traded fertilizer. Even with shipping only partially restored since the crisis began, the knock on effect on nitrogen costs has been one of the quieter but more persistent threats to planting economics worldwide this year.
Global Agriculture is an independent international media platform covering agri-business, policy, technology, and sustainability. For editorial collaborations, thought leadership, and strategic communications, write to pr@global-agriculture.com
