Global Fertilizer Prices Climb as Supply Stays Tight
25 September 2026, Chicago: Six of eight major fertilizers tracked in the United States rose in price during the week of September 23, according to DTN’s weekly retail fertilizer survey, with anhydrous ammonia now running 22 percent above year-ago levels as tight global nitrogen and phosphate supply continues to squeeze farmers heading into the next planting cycle.
The survey, one of the most closely watched benchmarks for North American fertilizer costs, showed DAP averaging 925 dollars a ton, MAP at 967 dollars a ton, potash at 495 dollars a ton, 10-34-0 liquid at 718 dollars a ton, anhydrous ammonia at 945 dollars a ton and UAN32 at 458 dollars a ton, all higher than the prior week. Urea and UAN28 were the only two nutrients to decline. None of the moves were large in percentage terms week over week, but the year-over-year picture is more striking: seven of the eight nutrients tracked are now more expensive than they were in September 2025, led by anhydrous ammonia’s 22 percent jump, with 10-34-0 up 8 percent and urea up 6 percent. Only UAN32 is cheaper than a year ago, down 3 percent.
Belarus potash deal offers limited relief
Fertilizer analysts say a proposed US move to ease sanctions on Belarusian potash, one of the world’s largest potash reserves, is unlikely to meaningfully change the supply picture in the near term. Josh Linville, a fertilizer market analyst at StoneX, said logistical barriers through Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and Ukraine continue to restrict how much Belarusian potash can actually reach export markets, regardless of what US sanctions policy allows. Linville also pointed out that potash was not the nutrient category most in need of relief in the first place. “We need help on phosphate and nitrogen,” he said, a comment that reflects where the real tightness in the global fertilizer complex currently sits.
That tightness has several overlapping causes. Phosphate supply has been constrained for much of 2026 by Chinese export restrictions on phosphate rock and processed phosphate products, which Beijing has maintained to protect domestic fertilizer availability. Nitrogen costs, meanwhile, have been pushed higher partly by the ripple effects of the US-Israel military conflict with Iran earlier this year, which disrupted natural gas and petrochemical feedstock markets that nitrogen fertilizer production depends on heavily. Both pressures are layered on top of already-elevated post-pandemic input costs that many farmers had hoped would ease by now.
A cost farmers cannot easily avoid
Fertilizer is one of the largest controllable input costs in row-crop production, and unlike diesel or labor, there are few substitutes when soil nutrient levels demand replenishment. For US farmers already contending with a fourth straight year of thin or negative margins on major row crops, an additional 6 to 22 percent increase in nutrient costs compared with last year adds real pressure to planting decisions for the 2027 season, potentially pushing some growers toward reduced application rates or shifts toward crops with lower fertility requirements.
The same dynamics are being felt well beyond US borders. India imports a substantial share of its diammonium phosphate and muriate of potash needs, and firmer global benchmark prices for DAP and potash directly affect the subsidy burden the Indian government carries under its Nutrient Based Subsidy scheme, since the government absorbs much of the gap between international prices and the subsidized price farmers pay. A sustained period of elevated global phosphate and potash prices, layered on top of supply chain bottlenecks out of China and logistical constraints around Belarus, raises the stakes for India’s fertilizer import planning ahead of the rabi season, when demand for phosphatic fertilizers typically peaks.
Global Agriculture is an independent international media platform covering agri-business, policy, technology, and sustainability. For editorial collaborations, thought leadership, and strategic communications, write to pr@global-agriculture.com
