Global Urea Prices Ease as China’s Export Surge Eases Supply Fears
15 September 2026, New Delhi, India: Global urea prices slipped to 443 dollars a metric ton on September 4, easing slightly on the day but confirming a broader retreat from the crisis levels seen earlier this year, as an expansion in Chinese exports and progress in diplomatic talks over the Strait of Hormuz combine to loosen what had been one of the tightest nitrogen fertiliser markets in years. Even at 443 dollars a tonne, prices remain 13.6 percent above last month and 13.2 percent above year-ago levels, according to Trading Economics data, underscoring how far the market still has to fall before returning to pre-crisis norms.
The clearest evidence of the shift came from India, the world’s largest urea importer. State-run Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers, known as RCF, issued a tender seeking 1.7 million tonnes of urea, and China alone is expected to supply roughly 1.2 million tonnes of that total, about two-thirds of what India sought. The lowest bids in the tender, submitted by trading house Ameropa, came in at 390.25 dollars a tonne on India’s east coast and 393.65 dollars on the west coast, with cargoes required to leave loading ports by September 24. That price represents a 58 percent decline from the 935 to 959 dollars a tonne India was forced to pay in an emergency purchase back in April, when the Strait of Hormuz crisis first disrupted global fertiliser trade flows.
A Tender That Set the Floor
Beijing’s own posture has changed markedly since the spring. China expanded its 2026 urea export allowance to roughly 5 to 5.5 million tonnes, and monthly shipments jumped from just 7,000 tonnes in June to about 403,000 tonnes in July, with cumulative exports through July reaching around 907,000 tonnes. That surge followed months of restrictions that China had imposed in mid-March to protect domestic fertiliser supply after the Hormuz disruption began, restrictions that at their peak covered an estimated 50 to 80 percent of China’s total fertiliser export volumes, including diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate and several NPK blends, according to a Reuters analysis of Chinese customs data.
Russia’s fertiliser exporters, meanwhile, continue to operate under quantitative quotas set through the Eurasian Economic Union framework, which has kept a separate layer of supply constraint in place even as China has loosened its own restrictions. Import-dependent regions including India, Brazil, Southeast Asia and parts of sub-Saharan Africa have spent recent months sourcing phosphate fertilisers from alternative suppliers such as Morocco’s OCP Group, North American producers and Middle Eastern exporters, often at a premium, since China had previously supplied roughly a fifth of fertiliser imports for countries like Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand, and closer to a third for Malaysia and New Zealand.
Relief for Buyers, Pressure on European Producers
Brazil, typically a major urea buyer, has actually pulled back on purchases and imported less than the prior year, largely because its northern hemisphere-timed planting cycle had already concluded and seasonal demand has softened, adding to the general sense of an oversupplied near-term market. European producers face the opposite problem. With Dutch TTF natural gas trading above 66.50 euros per megawatt hour, the break-even cost for an efficient European urea plant sits near 605 dollars a tonne ex-works, well above current global spot prices, squeezing margins for domestic manufacturers just as cheaper Chinese cargoes flood into import markets they once served.
Market watchers say the trajectory from here depends on three factors: how quickly the Hormuz negotiations conclude, whether Brazil resumes buying at its usual pace, and how much of China’s remaining annual export quota gets shipped before year end.
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