04 November 2026, Pretoria, SA: South Africa’s 2025-26 maize harvest has been confirmed as the largest on record, at 17.7 million tonnes, giving the country a supply cushion just as forecasters warn that a developing El Niño could bring a drier, hotter summer that threatens the crop farmers are now planting for 2026-27.
The country’s Crop Estimates Committee raised its production estimate by 1% from its September figure in its ninth estimate for the season, putting the harvest 6% above the previous year’s crop. Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, said the country enters the coming drought risk period in a far stronger position on grain supplies than it otherwise would be. Stocks at the start of the season stood at about 2.4 million tonnes, against annual domestic maize consumption of roughly 12 million tonnes.
Prices have eased as the scale of the harvest became clear. White maize traded at about 3,700 rand per tonne and yellow maize at about 3,800 rand per tonne on October 30, both well below levels of more than 4,000 rand per tonne seen a month earlier.
Farmers press ahead with planting despite drought risk
Forecasters consider the El Niño event now developing among the most intense on record, pointing to a drier and hotter summer extending into the first quarter of 2027. Soil moisture is currently favorable in many areas, helped by an extended 2025-26 rainy season and additional rain in September 2026, prompting some farmers to plant earlier than usual to take advantage of existing moisture before dry conditions set in.
According to the Crop Estimates Committee’s intention-to-plant survey, released October 27, South African farmers intend to plant 4.5 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds for the 2026-27 season, including white and yellow maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and beans. That area is 2% below the previous season but in line with the five-year average, with maize area expected to decline by more than other crops as some farmers shift acreage toward alternatives considered more drought-tolerant or less input-intensive.
Despite higher fertilizer and fuel costs and the drought outlook, farmers do not appear significantly deterred from planting, according to Sihlobo’s analysis of the Crop Estimates Committee data. He said South Africa’s supply position through the first quarter and part of the second quarter of 2027 will depend mainly on the record 2025-26 harvest already in storage, while the outcome of the crop now being planted will determine supply from the middle of 2027 onward. Prices are expected to firm as the season progresses and demand from the wider southern African region increases.
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