14 June 2025, Africa: New research published this week in PNAS shows that it is feasible for Sub-Saharan Africa to become self-sufficient in grains such as maize, wheat, and millet by 2050—without further expanding agricultural land. The study, led by Wageningen University & Research (WUR) in collaboration with several African institutions, international universities, and three CGIAR centers including IFPRI, offers updated and more optimistic projections compared to earlier research published in 2016.
Researchers analyzed the region’s potential to meet projected demand—expected to double by 2050 due to population growth and dietary shifts—through yield improvements in five staple grains: maize, wheat, millet, rice, and sorghum. While the region is currently 92% self-sufficient in these grains, achieving full self-sufficiency will require nearly tripling current rates of yield growth through improvements in farm management, input use, and infrastructure, as well as investments in education, credit access, and regional trade.
Timothy Sulser, a Senior Scientist with IFPRI’s Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit and co-author of the study, emphasized the value of the multi-disciplinary collaboration behind the analysis:
“It was great to continue this collaboration with a diverse group of colleagues from around the world, building on our previous work on the same topic. The range of insights and perspectives—from agronomy, economics, environmental science, and soil science—really strengthened the analysis of how food production can increase to meet growing demand in sub-Saharan Africa.
The question of self-sufficiency in food production comes up repeatedly and is an important one to consider carefully as a policy goal. One key insight from this paper is the value of taking a broader view—looking at self-sufficiency at the regional or continental level, rather than just nationally, and focusing on intra-African trade. That’s crucial for making the most of comparative advantages and building a more resilient and robust agrifood system for the region’s future.”
The study brought together institutions across Africa, Wageningen University, the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Huazhong Agricultural University, and CGIAR Centers including the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
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