Argentina’s Soybean Area Set to Expand to 17 Million Hectares for 2026/27
15 September 2026, Argentina: Argentine farmers are expected to plant 17 million hectares of soybeans in the 2026/27 season, a 1.2 percent increase from the 16.8 million hectares sown the previous cycle, according to projections released by the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange on September 10. The increase would return Argentina’s soybean area to its five-year average after two seasons of relatively subdued planting, and comes at a moment when global soybean prices are firming on the back of stronger Chinese demand for US supply and a slightly larger American crop, both flagged in this month’s US government supply and demand report.
The Exchange’s regional breakdown shows the expansion is not uniform across the country. In Argentina’s northern growing regions, farmers are expected to reduce corn plantings and shift that land into soybeans, a decision driven largely by leafhopper pest pressure that has made corn a riskier and more costly crop to grow in those zones in recent seasons. Leafhoppers transmit disease that can significantly damage corn yields, and control costs have risen enough that many northern producers are opting for the comparatively lower-input soybean crop instead. In central and southern Argentina, the pattern reverses, with corn and sunflower expected to hold or gain ground against soybeans, since those regions do not face the same pest pressure and their growing conditions favour corn economics.
Prices and Policy Both Point the Same Way
Exchange analysts cited two additional factors supporting the national soybean area increase: lower export duties on soybeans compared with recent years, and improved soybean prices, both of which make the crop more attractive relative to alternatives on a per-hectare profitability basis. Rising fuel costs are working in the opposite direction, particularly for farmers located far from Argentina’s main export terminals along the Parana River, since higher transport costs eat into the netback price they receive for their crop. For Argentina’s 2025/26 season, soybean output reached 50.1 million metric tons, and while the Exchange has not yet published a specific production forecast for 2026/27, the larger planted area suggests output could match or exceed that figure if weather cooperates.
Weather remains the biggest wildcard. Forecasters expect an El Nino weather pattern to develop through the 2026/27 growing season, a pattern that in South America’s farm belt has historically brought a mix of benefits and risks: generally wetter conditions that can support yields in some years, but also the potential for planting delays and elevated disease pressure in soybeans and corn alike, depending on how the rainfall is distributed through the season. Argentine farmers who lived through the drought-hit 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons will be watching the early season rainfall pattern closely before committing final hectares to each crop.
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